Beyond the streetlight

Abstract

This repository provides an analysis of the trend in forecast errors made by the Tealbook/Greenbook(GB) and the Survey of Professional Forecasters(SPF) for measures of the unemployment rate and real growth in personal consumption expenditures from 1982 to 2017. The data on forecasts for unemployment and consumption made by the federal reserve (Tealbook/Greenbook) and the mean across private forcasters are provided by the Philidelphia Fed. Data on realized values of the forecasted variables are provided by the St. Louis Fed.

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Abstract

This repository provides an analysis of the trend in forecast errors made by the Tealbook/Greenbook(GB) and the Survey of Professional Forecasters(SPF) for measures of the unemployment rate and real growth in personal consumption expenditures from 1982 to 2017.

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Install miniconda on your computer

  1. Open a Terminal (MacOS) or the Anaconda Prompt (Windows)
  2. At a command line, change the working directory to the one where you want to install
    • On MacOS/unix, if you install in the /tmp directory, the repo will disappear at reboot:
    • cd /tmp
  3. git clone https://github.com/dedwar65/beyond-the-streetlight --recursive
  4. cd beyond-the-streetlight
  5. conda env create -f ./binder/environment.yml --prefix ./condaenv
    • This creates ./condaenv inside your clone of the repo, containing dependencies.
  6. conda run --prefix ./condaenv pip install jupyterlab
  7. conda run --prefix ./condaenv jupyter-lab

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Key Value
cff-version 1.1.0
message If you use this software, please cite it as below.
authors {"family-names"=>"Edwards", "given-names"=>"Decory"}
{"family-names"=>"Carroll", "given-names"=>"Christopher", "orcid"=>"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3732-9312"}
abstract This repository provides an analysis of the trend in forecast errors made by the Tealbook/Greenbook(GB) and the Survey of Professional Forecasters(SPF) for measures of the unemployment rate and real growth in personal consumption expenditures from 1982 to 2017.
version 1.0.4
date-released
remark-version
references {"type"=>"article", "authors"=>[{"family-names"=>"Corrado", "given-names"=>"Carol"}, {"family-names"=>"Kennickell", "given-names"=>"Arthur"}], "title"=>"100 years of Economic Measurement in the Division of Research & Statistics: Beyond the streetlight", "date"=>#, "publisher"=>"R&S Centennial Conference"}
github_repo_url https://github.com/dedwar65/beyond-the-streetlight
remark-name beyond-the-streetlight
title-original-paper 100 years of Economic Measurement in the Division of Research & Statistics: Beyond the streetlight
notebooks RS100_Discussion_Slides.ipynb
tags REMARK
Notebook
keywords Econ-ARK
Greenbook
Forecast errors
date